29 for 1000 Wood, how are you now?

So who's going to be the next SCOTUS? Let's ask the markets. If the last two years have taught us nothing, it's that they're infallible.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=supreme+court


Kagan and Wood are tied in the lead. I'd be quite surprised if Kagan gets it. She's still got plenty of time left to serve as SG, where she will obviously be groomed for the next opening. I think the same can be said of Harold Koh, incidentally, although he seems to be in line behind her. Here is the thoery why I feel one might expect him to appoint Kagan:

He knew that Souter was going to retire early in his administration before we did. Koh is actually his SG pick, he just wanted to put on a show and paint Republicans into a corner by getting them to confirm (for SG) and say nice things about Kagan. Not only that, but Kagan, being an academic, might have had some time to take point on some of the first-day Bush rollbacks. She arrives at work in January, having spent the prior semester preparing for this job with an amount of free time that a sitting federal judge simply could not.

Underlying this theory, of course, is the premise that Kagan is just so amazingly brilliant as to warrant this orchestrated catapult onto the scene. Maybe she is, I have no idea, although I trust Obama's judgment on it.

Specter's theatrical party switch may have had something to do with it, too, and the anticipated dynamics of Senate confirmation. I should ponder that.

But, I think strangely that everything may be exactly how it seems. I think it will ultimately come down to a West Wing battle for who is going to do the most for the cause, both by power of her mind and of her character. Sotomayor is 54, Wood is 58. I think age is a wash, except perhaps as it would make either of them unlikely to have as strong a chance 3 years hence, if it takes that long. I think Obama, as a U Chicago academic, is going to feel a real connection to Wood. I should probably read more of their opinions, but I've just had my first break from work in about a month, and I'm enjoying it.